Category Archives: Crack up Boom

Probabilities, not averages

Over the years, we are constantly trying to remind readers of the major blind-spots within the conventional buy-and-hold investment theory community.  One in particular is their indifference to market risk at all times regardless of circumstances.   Market timing, they say, is a fools game that simply does not play out with the law of averages. …

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Draghi cannot change arrest the laws of economics

I’ve been reading Doug Noland since 2001, and have come to enjoy his commentary for its concise ability to frame what we’re facing. From a critically timed post today titled “Draghi Ready to Fight” The collapse of the Soviet Union coupled with the Greenspan Fed’s push into activist central banking ushered in what was almost …

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Unraveling

2015 steadily confirmed that the global credit bubble was coming unhinged.  Yet mainstream market optimism remained deeply entrenched at precarious heights. As we often noted during the build-up to credit cycle crisis that culminated with the collapse in 2008, there is a Wile E. Coyote phenomenon at work that preys on the psychology of most …

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Rothbard on the Great Depression

A half-century ago, America — and then the world — was rocked by a mighty stock-market crash that soon turned into the steepest and longest-lasting depression of all time. It was not only the sharpness and depth of the depression that stunned the world and changed the face of modern history: it was the length, …

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Iron Law of Valuation

John Hussman on what’s been brewing for some time: The way to understand the bubbles and collapses of the past 15 years, and those throughout history, is to learn the right lesson. That lesson is not that overvaluation can be ignored indefinitely – we know different from the collapses that have regularly followed extreme valuations. …

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Mother’s Milk of Speculation

“…It is undeniable that ZIRP is the mother’s milk of Wall Street speculation. After all, the money market is where dealers and hedge fund gamblers finance themselves and put on their carry trades. By contrast, no businessman with productive inventories of raw materials, work-in-process or finished goods would be foolish enough to fund his working capital in the overnight markets. Speculators …

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Stockman is spot on again

Is the end nigh?  Stockman seems to think the tipping point is past.  I think his summary is pretty much spot on. …the central banks of the world have shot their wad. Accordingly, the 12-year round trip depicted in the chart is not about the end of some nebulous “commodity supercycle” that arrived from out of the …

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